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What's in the Cards for Bristol-Myers' (BMY) Q4 Earnings?

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Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2020 results on Feb 4, before market open.

The company’s shares have lost 3.4% in the past year against the industry's growth of 14.5%.

 

Bristol-Myers has a decent track record, beating earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missing in the remaining one. The company delivered an earnings surprise of 7.78%, on average, in the trailing four quarters. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 9.40%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for the upcoming announcement.

Factors at Play

Bristol-Myers’ blood thinner drug, Eliquis, was one of the top revenue generators in the previous quarter with sales of $2.1 billion, up 9% year over year. This trend has most likely continued in the to-be-reported quarter, followed by market share increases. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug stands at $2.2 billion.

Sales of Bristol-Myers’ key immuno-oncology drug, Opdivo, were down 2% in the previous quarter. Opdivo has been facing a decline in the last few quarters amid stiff competition and the trend most likely continued in the to-be-reported quarter. The drug, which is approved for multiple cancer indications, generated sales of $1.8 billion in the last reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug stands at $1.7 billion.

Melanoma drug, Yervoy, contributed $446 million to the top line in the third quarter, up 26% year over year, and the fourth quarter is likely to have seen a sequential growth, driven by label expansion of the drug. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug stands at $446 million.

Arthritis drug, Orencia, raked in sales of $826 million in the last reported quarter and the fourth quarter has likely witnessed similar levels. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug stands at $792 million.

The acquisition of Celgene Corporation in November 2019 added oncology drug, Revlimid, to Bristol-Myers’ portfolio. Revlimid was the top revenue generator in the previous quarter with sales of $3 billion and the trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter as well.  The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug stands at $3 billion.

Pomalyst sales came in at $777 million in the previous quarter and similar levels of contribution are likely to have prevailed in the fourth quarter. 

Last year, the FDA approved Reblozyl for the treatment of patients with anemia failing an erythropoiesis-stimulating agent and requiring two or more red blood cell (RBC) units over 8 weeks in adults with very low- to intermediate-risk MDS-RS or with myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasm with ring sideroblasts and thrombocytosis. In March, the FDA also approved Zeposia (ozanimod) for the treatment of adults with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS), including clinically isolated syndrome, relapsing-remitting disease and active secondary progressive disease. The top line is likely to have got a boost from the incremental contributions of these two drugs.

Operating expenses are likely to have increased in the fourth quarter due to costs associated with the broader portfolio.

Key Recent Developments

In November, the European Commission (EC) approved Opdivo plus Yervoy with two cycles of platinum-based chemotherapy for the first-line treatment of adult patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose tumors have no sensitizing epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation or anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) translocation.

The FDA recently approved Exelixis’ (EXEL - Free Report) lead drug, Cabometyx, in combination with Opdivo for the first-line treatment of patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC).

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Bristol-Myers this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Bristol-Myers is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Alexion has an Earnings ESP of +12.29% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Merck (MRK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.27% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Bristol Myers Squibb Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

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